In the long term, chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget will just be a “blip”, Artemis investment manager Adrian Frost has said.
Frost made these comments at a Quilter media event on 7 November.
In the short term, UK businesses will see rising costs, such as the rise in the rate of National Insurance paid by employers by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April next year, Frost said.
But, “companies were aware this was in the pipeline” of what may be announced in the Budget.
Frost added that the Budget does not make the UK “better or worse off”, so he believes the UK can now “compete better internationally”.
The Budget, which took place on 30 October, saw the chancellor make £40bn worth of tax hikes.
However, the minimum wage also rose for those aged 21 years and over by 6.7% to £12.21 and pay for those aged 18 to 20 went up by 16.3% to £10 an hour.
Quilter Investors chief investment officer (CIO) and managing director Marcus Brookes compared Labour’s general election win in July 2024 to Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the US on 5 November.
He said both the Republicans and Labour saw “extraordinary results” mainly due to the incumbent governments of both countries being “rejected as they did not make life any better”.
Newton Investment Management deputy head of equity income, portfolio manager John Bailer, speaking at the same event, said he believes the regulatory environment in the US will do better under a Trump administration.
Newton is a global investment management firm, owned by BNY Mellon.
Frost manages Artemis’ UK equity income strategies, which he has done since he joined the firm in January 2002.
Errm… most of the above just reflects the ivory tower nature of bloated fund managers….
The Employers’ NI will not be a ‘blip’; the increase in mimimum wage similarly (though in my opinion much needed); together with Angrier Raynor’s lng service benefits…
Perhaps someone should mention £GBP Swap rates, Gilt yields, the mad rush to car sales % EV vs Petrol/ Diesel etc.
As to comparing the Trump victory and Labour… if the reasons are the same – perhaps – the actual results could hardly be more different… I believe it is something called the popular vote… maybe, some day, fund managers will actually declare their hidden, covert charges… apologies… a dream too far…
John,
Your first sentence – spot on. Some blip! The biggest tax rise in living memory. This will go down in history. Even the numpty in the BoE agrees that it will be inflationary. It’s a perfect storm for employers. (As you have indicated) NI + higher living wage + all the new rules for employees and the unions. All this and we haven’t even begun to asses Trump damage.
Indeed…
One thing I forgat to mention was the disingenuous comments from No. 11 & Treasury re the Agricultural 20% IHT etc.
It is said they get £1M on their House/Chattels, then £1M exempt from the new IHT levy, so only start to pay from then on…
Yet, if an over all estate is worth £3M, you lose the NRB anyway (confirmed to me by Deloittes)… IHT = 40% x £1m + 20% x £1M = £600k and NOT the £200k espoused…