Now the election is over, financial planners are likely to be asked, ‘what now?’
Questions around what clients should be doing are set to continue up to and beyond Labour’s first Budget.
In thinking about any tax planning, it helps to know what to expect by way of a timeline.
The dates below are part speculative and part certain. However, it is worth casting your mind back to the last time Labour gained power after a long run of Conservative rule.
In May 1997, within days of victory, the new government’s first major act was to give independence to the Bank of England, something nobody (including the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street herself) was expecting. There might be a grand surprise this time…
By the time you’re reading this, new chancellor Rachel Reeves will likely have asked the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to start the preparation of the next economic and fiscal outlook. She has said she will give the OBR 10 weeks’ notice before any fiscal event.
The new ministerial team will have been appointed and parliament reassembled with its first task to elect a commons speaker, too.
17 July: This is the date of the State Opening of Parliament and the King’s Speech. That speech will be an important indicator of the new government’s legislative priorities. Debate on the King’s Speech will likely occupy the next six sitting days for the House of Commons.
1 August (estimate): Parliament typically goes into recess around 22 July (last year the summer recess started on 20 July and, pre-election, it was scheduled for 23 July this year).
Labour will want to be seen taking some action before the holidays begin and, in any case, it will need time beyond the previously planned recess date to debate the King’s Speech.
However, there is a balance to be struck between House of Commons sitting time and the length of the recess, given MPs and their staff need some recovery time after six weeks of campaigning.
2 September (estimate): Parliament resumes after the recess.
13 September (estimate): If Reeves gave the OBR notice on 5 July as predicted, then Friday 13 September would be the earliest day on which she could present a Budget. Ignoring the superstitious date, Budgets are traditionally Wednesday events, so a more realistic earliest date is 18 September. That said, it is looking increasingly unlikely the Budget will be in September, for the timing reasons set out below.
22-25 September: The Labour Party Conference will take place in Liverpool. Parliament usually takes about three weeks off for conference season, allowing the three main parties to hold their annual meetings without MPs having to worry about being in Westminster.
This year, the first party conference is the Liberal Democrats’, running between 14-17 September, with the Conservatives providing the other bookend between 29 September and 2 October.
The decision on recess dates is at the government’s discretion, so it is possible at least one of the main opposition parties will find it is disadvantaged in 2024. Again, the driver will be Labour wanting to make a mark – and exploit its fresh political capital – in its first 100 days. That becomes more difficult the greater proportion of those 100 days is spent in recess.
October (estimate): With this in mind, October is now looking the more probable month for the Budget. By then, the government will need to have decided whether it is going for a full three-year Spending Review (2025-28), as scheduled by former chancellor Jeremy Hunt, or opting for a one-year interim review.
It is possible Reeves will combine the Spending Review and Budget in one statement, given their interdependencies.
It’s at times of change like these that proactive informed advice can be so valuable. The reassurance and removal of anxiety that can be delivered through trusted behavioural coaching can be a major contributor to the delivery of advice alpha .
Tony Wickenden is managing director of Technical Connection
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